^V^
Let compare my forehand call on AA with singh's backhand call on AA, is TA works ? MY FOOT ! Is FA not fruitful ? u must be KIDDING !!!
My call on AirAsia 9 June 2008 >>
----- Original Message ----
From: samltt88
To: Benjamin Tey
Cc: chunchuan,ex10sion ,apchan anand, abdullahnizam; lylsham72; ahtoon; amelie. kentau; aus2070; ,herbertyeo; darren.auyeong@dhl. dylangohce; beckham_scud7; juneng; welix; foongpp; koonkhim; utm_ksteoh2000; cheahaurshyang; kkheng_tan; acoolbook@, cctang; tancg2u; cheety; djburger; alenac.chua; ccdeville70; susanto.effendy; fafollower; faridg81; learning.ydy;newbies ; felixkcooi; Sent: Monday, June 9, 2008 2:24:58 PM
Subject: ^V^ Every stock has its value , AA ^V^
^V^
I still remember when i first bought Liondiv @ 1.03 in year 2004 , that time i was in china, i went to almost all d parkson outlets in shanghai n beijing , i found 2 good stuffs in Parkson china " ,
First "crowded "
Second " Branded , mainland chinese taking parkson as branded goods like LV, GA , jusco n starbucks.
Ok..all these r old time stories already..back to my point:_
Yesterday noon , i brought my maid to lcct 4 balik kampong , once i reached there, i saw "parking penuh" signboard at d parking entrance ,that is not d worst part, d worst part was i were stuck in traffic jam right in front of d arrival exit, u can see lots of cars parked in front of d entrance ! it is just like driving into PuduRaya bus station !
That is not d end yet , since my maid doesnt know how to check in n get d boarding pass, i got no choice but to do all that for her, i went to check in :-
Sam : hi, this is d ticket no n passport.
AA staff : gd evening sir, any lagguage ?
sam : yes .
AA staff : one only ?
Sam : Yes.
AA staff:Sir , RM90.00 pls
Sam : What ? what RM90 ???
AA: Sir , yr lagguage is over weighted by 6 kg, every excess kg we charged u Rm15.00
OMG !!!
I talked to myself , This Tony bugger is really blood sucker !! RM90.00 is almost half of d air fare lah ! no wonder AA can still make $$$$ in its latest QE despite d one-time foreign exchange gain lah. shit !like that i will surely buy AA once she drop to 0.80+ !!
Guys, to undestand a company's earning better, we must'nt sit in offcie to do analysis, sometimes we need to go to d ground n see it ourselves .
Every stock has its value , buying king of bluechip " Public bank" @ >RM20.00 is no longer value buy as compared to Ranhill @ 0.50 . High crude oil will definitely bring negative effect in AA earning, but then.. has it factored in its recent dip already ? AA is now traded below its IPO n NTA.
Put yrself as budget consumer , if u need to budget yr spending to counter high inflation, which one u choose ? Won Ton mee( high class air carrier) with 3.80 per bowl or roti canai (AA) with 0.80 per piece ?
No doubt AA gearing is high, but then tell me which airline company ;s gearing is not high except SIA n cathay pacific ??
Take a look at its 2 qe , 1st qe = 7.7 cts , 2nd qe= 6.8 cts
let presume 3 rd qe = 2cts n 4 qtr = zero cts..ok ??
total EPS for 08 = 16.5cts which giving u PE of 4+ !!
u may ask..how about next year ?? well.. i dont think crude oil will trade at high 4ever, somehow she will come back to usd100+- by begining of next year.
n also never forget d landing rights of AA n its air liecense !
Those who follow me to buy AA @ 0.80+- in stages , pls be prepared to hold , i dont think AA will bounce back to >1.15 in short n mid term.
My initial TP n plan 4 AA:-
Buy @ 0.80+- in stages
run @ >1.00 to 1.06 targetted 30% return ^V^
Refer to d attachment, u can see Government funds r slowly buying in AA @ 1.00+-, look at d date of their purchases.
Hesitate to buy? perhaps u shld look at my Tenaga @6.75, 40% returns in less than 3 months not a good deal ??
I will let u know once i am in .
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See? After Tenaga @6.75 , AA @0.80+- DELIVERED again in less than 2 months !! if FA not fruitful ? Tenaga is big blue chip, AA is mini/midi blue chip , buy blue chip @ PE < 10 in bear mkt is definitely a gem for mid n long term hold ! bukan ?
i still remember one sour Taiko blogger said " of course lah ! tell me who doesnt make $$$$$ if he bought shares in 2006 ? well.... perhaps u shld ask yrself, is 2008 a bull year ? y we still managed to make decent gain lately ? need a second thought again ?
AA closed at 1.15 today, those who bought @ 0.80+-, is time for u to take profit now ! sell first n buy back later ^V^
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Now , take a look at what Singh commentted on Airasia >>>
SELL call by singh >>>
Monday, June 16, 2008
AirAsia still profitable on US$200 a barrel oil?
Found this article reported in Malaysian Insider: http://themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/home/42-lead-stories/505-airasia-still-profitable-on-us200-a-barrel-oil-ceo-says
My thoughts and comments follows:
My Comments:
To be honest, my initial reaction when I read this is "You Got to be Joking"! This must surely be a "Big Talk" by the CEO in response to sagging AIRASIA prices (closed 87.5 sen, close to all time low). Only time I suppose will prove whether he is right or wrong.
There is some logic to what he says. In times like this, I can accept that there will be more rational competition within the industry, and from a business owner perspective, this should be beneficial in terms of ability to price higher as a general comment.
But I also seriously wonder what Tony means by "profitable". We all know that Reported Profit is not the same thing as Cash Flow. And the definition of Profits can mean different things depending on which side of the fence the Accountant sits. Ultimately, Cash is King and this is not necessarily the same thing as Profit. And I noticed that the $162M Profit reported here - this time whilst acknowledging Foreign exchange gain - still did not acknowledge the Tax Credits. And Tax Credits is not real Cash. Excluding both, it's still not $162M but $23M. (see my earlier article on where $23M is derived - I don't sense Tony (or the Journalist) is being completely honest here in attributing the profit growth, and this to me is worrying. Why? Because when management starts lying to the public, the biggest danger is not when they don't fool the public, but when they end up lying to themselves and start believing their lies, and then make new decisions based on the half-truths. Of course, not all lies told are intentional. But this is a source of concern, because they might not be facing up to the full truth.
Second is the policy of not hedging during "volatile" times. Today is June, and he says he is still hedged from Apr to June. I wondered why he didn't say this (not hedging during volatile times) a lot earlier like late last year. I mean when did he come to the realization that oil is now volatile? This month? Last month? I think anyone - who tracks crude oil price closely and observe crude oil price charts - should see a price break-out above $80 happening as early as September last year. Break-outs are by definition "volatile" times, since when this happens, the market price breaks out, and becomes much higher than all previous prices before then. If this phenomena is not volatile then, then, I don't know what is (volatile). So, wouldn't one reasonably expect that this "realization" should have happened by September last year? But did he stopped hedging by September last year?
Perhaps $80 is still not "high enough". Ok. What about by December last year (5-6 months ago) when it broke out above $100? Surely it must be considered volatile already by then. After all, just months before that, it was trading at half the price (only $50-$55)? So, I am really curious as to when he came to that realization that crude oil first became"volatile". And my query is did he stopped hedging by December last year? If not, why not?
Or is this "stop hedging decision" a new decision just made this month? For the purpose of promoting this news article? I'm not an AirAsia fan, so, I might not have noticed it and perhaps, he might just be reiterating what is already a policy previously.
The other concern I have is the nature of the business itself. There is no doubt that times are tougher now. Higher global and domestic inflation arising from increase in global commodity and food prices, with multiplier / chain-reaction effects. Air travel will either reduce or suffer a smaller growth rate - okay, not as bad as 2003 SARS perhaps, but adversely affected nonetheless. (Don't tell me the current crisis are all planned and known in advance last year.) But unlike 2003 SARS, the business, global and operating environment (e.g. price of crude oil, etc.) today is very different and volatile. Back in 2003, crude oil "peak" is only $40. Today the peak is $140. Has airfares increased proportionately? Or are we still seeing heavily discounted fares in the industry? Or has the competition gone worse in terms of pricing?
Further interest rates are set to rise with higher inflation. I don't think AirAsia financing needs and costs are going to come down any time soon. Instead, with further new planes coming in and further expansion plans, they will eventually need further increase in financing, and one can only expect AA's financing costs to go up relatively higher than its competitors with better looking balance sheets. AirAsia's relatively newer fleet too will be hit hard with higher depreciation costs relative to its competitors with older plane fleets, at the a time when air travel revenues are likely to face a squeeze rather than growing fast.
To me, this is a very risky business plan. As Tony acknowledge, the prudent plan is to scale down expansion plans, cut down new aircraft purchases or defer buying. The obvious risk is that AA ends up with a lot more planes and excess capacity than it really needs or can utilize reasonably. This is a comparative analysis comparing current situation, future situation against past situation in a general manner. Of course, if anyone has very specific modelling which clearly show the situation in the past, present and future (3 scenarios), then, I'll be very happy to comment. But in my own judgement, if Airasia were to find itself to become unprofitable, I am afraid, it would become extremely difficult if not impossible to get out of the hole as it is playing an extremely high stake game with such huge borrowings and expansion plans. Buffett's analogy of driving with a knife pointing at the driver's heart comes into mind, because the slightest pothole and bump is likely to kill the driver.
Anyway, only time will tell whether AirAsia will come out smelling like roses, or we'll see serious deterioration in profits.
I do like though Tony's attempts at trying everything possible to make sure that AA remains profitable, including selling washing machines. All good managers are like that - extremely determined, persistent, and innovative. The only problem is I'm not sure I want to carry that heavy washing machine home by myself ... but I'm sure Tony will think of home delivery service as well before I can think of it! But at the end of the day, Air Asia must know its core competency, and I'm again reminded by Buffett's quote that when good managers faces a business with deteriorating economics, the latter usually almost always wins.
Posted by Seng at 10:22 PM 1 comments
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Halooo Singh , AA closed today @1.15+-, rose smell or shit smell ?
U r again reminded by Buffett's quote ? really? come on singh !Buffett also quoted that TA is a kiss of death ! u dont agreed with him ah ? or u forgot liao ? ha ha dont quote buffett to show u r good in FA lah..if u agreed with buffett method, u wont be using TA for yr share trades liaoooo ! bukan ?
Do I need TA to time d bottom ?
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