^V^
1998 crisis is nothing if u compare with 2008 crisis ! 1998 is regional crisis but 2008 is global crisis ! is KLSE hurt badly by d recent crash ? 2 be very frank , "NO" ! not that bad yet if u compare with 1998 crisis ^V^
Doubt ? let me show u some facts n figures to support my statement :-
1998 crisis
Maybank 2.70
PBB 0.80
YTL 0.80
IOI 0.50
Genting 2.50 ( B4 x )
TNB 4.50
2008 crisis
Maybank 5.50
PBB 8.90
YTL 5.70
IOI 3.50 ( after x )
TNB 6.45
Genting (after x )
What we found from d above ? first , we r not badly hurt yet if u make d comparison , what i am trying to hint here is " we r still not at bottom " there r more down side risk ahead , KLSE is now trading @ PER of 11+- as compared to regional bourses of 9+- .
Second, u can see that buying FA stocks during mkt crash 4 long term play r extremely fruitfuls !
Calculate yrself what is d percentage of returns if one bought ytl,ioi,pbb n genting during 1998 crisis ?
Is now d bottom for fishing ? I don’t know , but i am very sure that if u buy low pe bluechip for long term play, latest by 2013, u will definitely lough all d way to bank, that is for sure ^V^
U may say “ sinka sam, all these r ma how pao , who doesn’t know his mom is female ? “ well.. perhaps u should refer to d below links :-
Still who doesn’t know his mom is female ? how come nobody knows their moms r female like me b4 this financial crisis ?
How do I know we shld minimise our portfolio b4 1st qtr of 2008 ? how do I know Bear is coming in year of rat ? tak lain tak bukan PE method n a little bit of feng shui that safe me from this turmoil ! hello darlie singh, still think that PE is useless ? still think that feng shui is feng my shui ?
These r my last year forecast :-
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html
***
Samgoss said...
Rookie, is 28 Feb 08 is d date to sell off all yr shares ? my answer is : I dont know " , no matter what, i will stick to my initial plan, sell along d rise ! minimise yr portfolio when mkt going higher n higher ^V^
D reasons y i want to dispose most of my shares by 28 Feb 08 !?
1)D bull was started at beginning of 2006 ( check yrself :-Hang Seng, SSEX, STI n Kopsi ), according to history, d life spend for bull is around 18 to 24 months +, SSEX n HangSeng r at historical high in fact it is already sky high ! due to olympic effect + more fed cut ahead, i forsee there r still strength for Asia stocks to move for another 3 to 4 months, couples with traditional good month for year end n CNY, I think mkt momentum is still there from now till CNY. no matter what, always remember d golden words " there is no forever up mkt n also no forever down mkt " ! hence , i decided to minimise my portfolio to at least 1/3 by coming 28 Feb 08.
2) According to my 8 zhi =birthdate ,next year is a bad year for me n those who r same age with me , next year is not a year of attack, it is year of
defence ^V^
***
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008_03_01_archive.html
N again my second warning on June 08:-
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008/06/v-check-yr-holding-n-cash-is-king-v.html
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2008/09/v-is-1000-d-bottom-4-klci-v.html
Once I found regional mkt traded @ PE >25 couple with my 8 zhi telling me year of rat is not my year , n also d iching indicating there would be a crisis awaiting in year 2008, I knew it is time to reduce my share holding liaooo ^V^
By science , I hv my PE method to guide me, by Feng Shui, I hv iching n my 8 zhi to help me, that’s y I still can stand high n shout “舞照跳 ,馬照跑 “ ^V^
4 those who interested on bottom fishing , my advice ,u can buy n keep some low pe bluechips esp those cash kow taiko (cos cash is king during recession) but don’t sai lang all yr cash in shares, we r not only dealing with financial problems but also” confidence crisis”, hence u need to allocate some fund 4 d coming recession.
Any rebound is time 4 u to take profit including my zzzzz, as for my xxxxx, I will sel l 1/2 on rebound @ around 0.60+- if that happen ha ha,
From now onwards, u can forget about MR BULL in short n mid term , d most ideal way is ding dong trade ! play between d range ^V^ Example , zzzzz , play around btwn 6.00 to 7.00 ^V^ if she down below 6.00 then put it under yr below lolll ^V^
" Share mkt is not science , it is art " in SHORT TERM ! if share mkt is science , no way PBB can down to 0.80 n also no way repco can be traded @ > rm 100 ! BUT IN LONG TERM , it is absolutely science , up or down all count by FUNDAMENTAL !
4 those non bananas, read what cold eyes said as below :-
4 those bananas, u can go to google translate @
http://translate.google.com.my/translate_t#
“烂”是指公司烂了，也就是公司亏蚀越来越大，最后走向破产。
“跌”是指股票的价格下跌。 凡是买股票的，无不谈“跌”色变。
无论是投资或投机者，都会畏“跌”如畏虎。 股票投资如用兵，兵败如山倒时，谁不魂飞魄散？
“跌”诚然是可怕的。对我这种长期投资者来说，有比“跌”更可怕，而且可怕十倍的。那就是“烂”。
股票就是公司的股份。 股份的价值，长期来说，决定于公司的盈利表现。
如果公司的生产越做越大，越做越火红，盈利一年比一年多，那么，股份就会越来越值钱，股价就会持续不断的上升，你的财富也会与日俱增。
如果公司的生意越做越萎缩，年年亏蚀，而且亏蚀额越来越大，最后可能面临破产的噩运，则股份的价值，必然一跌再跌，最后可能使你血本无归。
在短期内，股票的价格会受到股市走势或人为操纵的影响，波动激烈。但长期来说，股价必然与公司的业绩同步，也就是说，股价必然会反映公司的业绩，只不过时间上有迟早之分而已。
如果我们以偏高的价格买进一只好股的话，当股市崩溃时，它的股价也会跟着下跌，投资者也会蒙受亏蚀。如果你是长期投资者，你不理会股市的起落，紧握你的股份不放，当公司的盈利一年比一年多时，股份的价值就会跟着上升，你会反亏为赚。
投资致富最佳途径 . . .
如果你是低价买进好股的话，就会赚得更多。 这是靠股票投资致富的最佳、最稳当的途径。
世界上许多富豪，都是这样致富的，1968年世界首富保罗盖帝，当今世界富豪华伦巴菲特，都是典型的例子。
让我举一个大马的例子说明：
大众银行（PbBank，1295，主板金融股）在1996年金融风暴前的股价最高为4.64令吉，最低为3.04令吉。
假如你在1996年时以4.64令吉的最高价买进一千股（面值50仙）收藏至今，在收取五次红股及认购一次附加股之后，目前拥有一千九百五十股（面值一令吉），以今天9.60令吉的价格计算，价值一万八千余令吉，等于十年前投资额的四倍，假如把历年收到的丰厚股息也计算在内的话，赚了超过五百巴仙。
请注意，你在1996年时是以当年的最高价买进，仍能取得五百巴仙的盈利。如果是以当年最低价3.04令吉买进，就赚得更多。
大众银行在1998年金融风暴时曾一度跌至0.81令吉，如果你以此价买进的话，你将赚十倍以上。如果你继续拿下去的话，将来肯定能赚得更多。
大众银行的盈利，年年上升，是使你即使高价买进，仍能反败为胜的主要原因。
在十多年前，当第二板的股票，都被炒到十令吉以上时，我的朋友以十令吉的价格，买进一千股开屏（KaiPeng，8796，二板贸服股），坚守至今，由于该公司连年亏蚀，股价一跌再跌，今天只剩二分。
切勿低价买坏股 . . .
同样是高价买进，持股期限同样超过十年，买好股和买坏股，结果有天壤之别。所以，散户宁可高价买好股，切勿低价买坏股。 当然，如果坚持反向策略，低价买好股，就可以赚得更多。
坏股即使低价，亦不可买，何况是高价。 低价买好股，使你盘满钵满。 高价买坏股，使你死无葬身之地。在金融风暴之后，数以百计的公司被列入PN4，纷纷破产或被除牌，受害者多数是投机的散户，可引为殷鉴。
“烂”比“跌”更可怕。 可怕十倍。
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